Abstract: Objective To lighten the burden of people’s medical care and achieve the fairness of basic health care must reduce the proportion of personal health expenditure. Methods The future development trend and structure of the total health expenditure were analyzed by the method of screening and forecast. Results According to the adjustment of national policy and the reform of local medical and health system, the proportion of personal health expenditure can be controlled below 30%. Conclusion To reduce the proportion of personal health expenditure should not control the medical consumption of urban and rural residents, but to increase the government and social investment, so that the proportion of personal health expenditure will be reduced.